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Velo3D, Inc. Common stock (VELO) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
28
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~5 months before VELO
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on VELO.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-60% → +14%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
28 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
590
797
Normalized
590
797
Prepared
30
797
Aligned
28
28
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
28
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 8 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
-100%
+73% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does Velo3D, Inc. Common stock (VELO) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 5 months ago?"
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
-100%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-17%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
771
A: 2 / B: 769
Series A
Velo3D, Inc. Common stock (VELO)
VELO
Stock · 590 raw → 30 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
50.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2920
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0555
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-velo_monthly_5y