SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+55%
of values
In sync
56%
of periods
History
710
months · through 2026-03
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~31% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~2 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+55%
Based on values
95% CI
+50% → +60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
710 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,095
795
Normalized
3,095
795
Prepared
712
795
Aligned
710
710
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
30.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
710
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
+72%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 2 months from now?"
708 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
+72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+85%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-82%
122 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
87
A: 2 / B: 85
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,095 raw → 712 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 795 raw → 795 prepared
Sign agreement
62.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.4571
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 days ago · ID: fred-icsa_fred-sahmrealtime_5y