SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+73%
of values
In sync
54%
of periods
History
3,094
days · through 2026-04-18
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~54% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~4 days before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+73%
Based on values
95% CI
+72% → +75%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
3,094 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
3,095
3,094
Normalized
3,095
3,094
Prepared
3,095
3,094
Aligned
3,094
3,094
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
53.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
3,094
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+4 days
Correlation at this shift
+85%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 4 days earlier. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 4 days from now?"
3,090 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 days
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+99%
95 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
111 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
43 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1
A: 1 / B: 0
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,095 raw → 3,095 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,094 raw → 3,094 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
58
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4.8405
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
986332.8531
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-icsa_5y