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Correlation
of values
+73%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-25
3,103
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~54% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~4 weeks before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+73%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
3,103 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,104
3,103
Normalized
3,104
3,103
Prepared
3,104
3,103
Aligned
3,103
3,103
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
54%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
3,103
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+4 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+85%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 4 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 4 weeks from now?"
3,099 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 weeks
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1
A: 1 / B: 0
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 3,104 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,103 raw → 3,103 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
60
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4.8422
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
985033.8175
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-icsa_weekly_5y