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Correlation
of values
+39%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
713
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+39%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
713 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,104
809
Normalized
3,104
809
Prepared
714
809
Aligned
713
713
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
15%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
713
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
713 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+99%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
97
A: 1 / B: 96
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 714 prepared
Series B
Personal Savings Rate
PSAVERT
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
40
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.8073
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-icsa_fred-psavert_monthly_5y