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Correlation
of values
+48%
In sync
of periods
70%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
389
These move in the same direction about 70% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~23% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+48%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
389 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
798
389
Normalized
798
389
Prepared
798
389
Aligned
389
389
Invalid removed
23%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
389
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+48%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
389 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+99%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+50%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
62 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
409
A: 409 / B: 0
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 798 raw → 798 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 389 raw → 389 prepared
Sign agreement
58.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.2481
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.5117
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y