SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-41%
of values
In sync
51%
of periods
History
278
weeks · through 2026-09
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~2 weeks before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -31%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
278 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
795
5,837
Normalized
795
5,837
Prepared
795
1,218
Aligned
278
278
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
16.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
278
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-2 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-47%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
5Y Breakeven Inflation shifted 2 weeks later. Reads: "Does Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator today line up with 5Y Breakeven Inflation 2 weeks ago?"
276 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 weeks
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
139 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,457
A: 517 / B: 940
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 795 raw → 795 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,837 raw → 1,218 prepared
Sign agreement
55.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1748
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.0391
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 days ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_fred-t5yie_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.