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Correlation
of values
-38%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
282
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~3 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on values
95% CI
-47% → -27%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
282 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
799
5,921
Normalized
799
5,921
Prepared
799
285
Aligned
282
282
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
282
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-3 months
Correlation at this shift
-48%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
5Y Breakeven Inflation shifted 3 months later. Reads: "Does Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator today line up with 5Y Breakeven Inflation 3 months ago?"
276 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 months
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
139 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
520
A: 517 / B: 3
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,921 raw → 285 prepared
Sign agreement
55.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1632
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.0380
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y