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Correlation
of values
+78%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
713
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~62% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+78%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
713 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
798
3,103
Normalized
798
3,103
Prepared
798
714
Aligned
713
713
Invalid removed
62%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
713
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+78%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
713 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+78%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+100%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+70%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
86
A: 85 / B: 1
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 798 raw → 798 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,103 raw → 714 prepared
Sign agreement
62.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1216951.2383
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2193069.5290
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y