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Correlation
of values
+51%
In sync
of periods
74%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
797
These move in the same direction about 74% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
74.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+51%
Based on values
95% CI
+46% → +56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
797 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
797
Normalized
940
797
Prepared
940
797
Aligned
797
797
Invalid removed
R²(i)
26.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
797
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
797 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+63%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+75%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
143
A: 143 / B: 0
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
63.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
46
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2931
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.2937
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_fred-unrate_monthly_5y