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Correlation
of values
+39%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
497
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
US Economic Policy Uncertainty moves ~2 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch US Economic Policy Uncertainty for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+39%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
497 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
798
15,162
Normalized
798
15,162
Prepared
798
499
Aligned
497
497
Invalid removed
15%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
497
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
+47%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Economic Policy Uncertainty shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator today line up with US Economic Policy Uncertainty 2 months ago?"
493 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
+47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-24%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
49 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
303
A: 301 / B: 2
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 798 raw → 798 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,162 raw → 499 prepared
Sign agreement
59.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
82
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
28.3388
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
108.6633
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_fred-usepuindxd_monthly_5y