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Correlation
of values
+80%
In sync
of periods
72%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
58
These move in the same direction about 72% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~63% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~9 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
71.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+80%
Based on values
95% CI
+68% → +87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
797
1,777
Normalized
797
1,777
Prepared
797
60
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
63.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
+85%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 9 months ago?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+27%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-20%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
741
A: 739 / B: 2
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,777 raw → 60 prepared
Sign agreement
75.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
6.5625
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7494
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-iorb_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y