SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 31% of the time
Weak positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
Industrial Production
INDPRO
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-81%) is 2.0σ from the long-run average of +7% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-7%) and fall (+6%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+7%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
938 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Industrial Production at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+7%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+0% → +13%
Likely range
R²
0.4%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
31.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
938
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
938 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
938
1,287
Normalized
938
1,287
Prepared
938
1,287
Aligned
938
938
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-80%
168 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
349
A: 0 / B: 349
Series A
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
INDPRO
FRED · 1,287 raw → 1,287 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.1777
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
54.5382
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:indpro|fred:unrate|5Y
INDPRO
Industrial Production
Strongest positive