SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 41% of the time
Weak positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Alphabet is a holding company that wholly owns internet giant Google. The California-based company derives slightly less than 90% of its revenue from Google services, the vast majority of which is advertising sales. Alongside online ads, Google services houses sales stemming from Google's subscription services (YouTube TV and YouTube Music, among others), platforms (sales and in-app purchases on Play Store), and devices (Chromebooks, Pixel smartphones, and smart home products such as Chromecast). Google's cloud computing platform accounts for roughly 10% of Alphabet's revenue. The firm's investments in up-and-coming technologies such as self-driving cars (Waymo), health (Verily), and interne
Market cap 4.7T · 190,820 employees
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-67%) is running 1.2σ away from the long-run average of +17%.
Fed Funds Rate moves ~18 months before GOOGL
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on GOOGL.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+73%
+56% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock today line up with Fed Funds Rate 18 months ago?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Funds Rate shifted 18 months later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+17%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-9% → +41%
Likely range
R²
2.8%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
40.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
862
Normalized
1,255
862
Prepared
61
862
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-24%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
803
A: 1 / B: 802
Series A
Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock
GOOGL
Market cap 4.7T · 190,820 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0054
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.6022
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-googl_5y