SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 56% of the time
Strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2025, reserves were 19.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.1 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-74%) is 2.6σ from the long-run average of +77% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
XOM moves ~4 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch XOM for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (+25%) vs when both rise (+61%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+90%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Exxon Mobil Corporation today line up with Fed Funds Rate 4 months from now?"
56 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Funds Rate shifted 4 months earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+77%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+63% → +85%
Likely range
R²
58.5%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
56.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
862
Normalized
1,255
862
Prepared
61
862
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+61%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
803
A: 1 / B: 802
Series A
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0669
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3.4109
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-xom_5y