SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 50% of the time
Strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2025, reserves were 19.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.1 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
DFII10
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-15%) is 2.2σ from the long-run average of +85% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+19%) and fall (+4%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+85%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,245 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 10Y Real Yield (TIPS) at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+85%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+83% → +86%
Likely range
R²
72.2%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,245
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,245 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
5,836
Normalized
1,255
5,836
Prepared
1,255
5,836
Aligned
1,245
1,245
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
121 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,601
A: 10 / B: 4591
Series A
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
DFII10
FRED · 5,836 raw → 5,836 prepared
Sign agreement
80.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
39
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0420
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3.1186
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: fred-dfii10_stock-xom_5y
DFII10
10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
Strongest positive