Correlation
of values
-10%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-01
181
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Velocity of M2 Money Stock moves ~12 weeks before USD/HKD Exchange Rate
Watch Velocity of M2 Money Stock for an early read on USD/HKD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-10%
Based on values
95% CI
-24% → +4%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
181 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
269
11,370
Normalized
269
11,370
Prepared
269
2,365
Aligned
181
181
Invalid removed
R²(i)
1.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
181
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-33%
+22% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/HKD Exchange Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Velocity of M2 Money Stock today line up with USD/HKD Exchange Rate 12 weeks from now?"
169 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-10%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
89 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,272
A: 88 / B: 2184
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,370 raw → 2,365 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1620
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.9604
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-m2v_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.