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Correlation
of values
-75%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
101
These move opposite each other about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~57% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Velocity of M2 Money Stock moves ~5 months before Job Openings
Watch Velocity of M2 Money Stock for an early read on Job Openings.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-75%
Based on values
95% CI
-83% → -65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
101 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
269
304
Normalized
269
304
Prepared
269
304
Aligned
101
101
Invalid removed
R²(i)
56.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
101
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
-87%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Velocity of M2 Money Stock today line up with Job Openings 5 months from now?"
96 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-75%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
-87%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+53%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+88%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
47 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
371
A: 168 / B: 203
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 304 raw → 304 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-6283.0701
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15683.5356
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-jtsjol_fred-m2v_monthly_5y