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Correlation
of values
-83%
In sync
of periods
—
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
125
These move together
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~68% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
N/A
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-83%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
125 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
269
7,900
Normalized
269
7,900
Prepared
269
379
Aligned
125
125
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
68%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
125
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-83%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
125 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
398
A: 144 / B: 254
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,900 raw → 379 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.6815
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.2114
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-m2v_monthly_5y