SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
-79%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
daysdays · through 2026-01-01
80
These move opposite each other about 39% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~62% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Velocity of M2 Money Stock moves ~6 days before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch Velocity of M2 Money Stock for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-79%
Based on values
95% CI
-86% → -69%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
80 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
269
241
Normalized
269
241
Prepared
269
241
Aligned
80
80
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
62.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
80
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
-86%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does Velocity of M2 Money Stock today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 6 days from now?"
74 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
-86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+43%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
49 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
350
A: 189 / B: 161
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 241 raw → 241 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-16.3209
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
51.7293
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-m2v_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.