Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-76%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
81
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~57% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Velocity of M2 Money Stock moves ~14 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Velocity of M2 Money Stock for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-76%
Based on values
95% CI
-84% → -64%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
81 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
269
5,097
Normalized
269
5,097
Prepared
269
245
Aligned
81
81
Invalid removed
R²(i)
57.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
81
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+14 months
Correlation at this shift
-90%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 14 months earlier. Reads: "Does Velocity of M2 Money Stock today line up with US Dollar Index 14 months from now?"
67 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+14 months
-90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+55%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-31%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
43 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
352
A: 188 / B: 164
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,097 raw → 245 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-39.3712
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
166.5651
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-m2v_monthly_5y