SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+76%
of values
In sync
62%
of periods
History
138
weeks · through 2026-01
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~57% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~12 weeks before Velocity of M2 Money Stock
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on Velocity of M2 Money Stock.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+76%
Based on values
95% CI
+67% → +82%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
138 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
269
1,810
Normalized
269
1,810
Prepared
269
1,810
Aligned
138
138
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
57.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
138
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+86%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Velocity of M2 Money Stock today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks ago?"
126 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+45%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
54 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,803
A: 131 / B: 1672
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,810 raw → 1,810 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4.1553
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2.0167
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-m2v_fred-mortgage15us_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.