SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-80%
of values
In sync
50%
of periods
History
81
months · through 2026-01
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~64% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Velocity of M2 Money Stock moves ~18 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Velocity of M2 Money Stock for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-80%
Based on values
95% CI
-87% → -71%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
81 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
269
5,092
Normalized
269
5,092
Prepared
269
244
Aligned
81
81
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
64.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
81
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-91%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Velocity of M2 Money Stock today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months from now?"
63 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+34%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-14%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
351
A: 188 / B: 163
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXEMEGS
FRED · 5,092 raw → 244 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-49.0141
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
187.0106
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dtwexemegs_fred-m2v_5y
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Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.