SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Avalanche
AVAX
Smart Contract · USD pair
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+19%) is 2.1σ from the long-run average of -57% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+14%) and fall (+22%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-57%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
499 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 10Y-2Y Yield Spread at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-57%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-62% → -51%
Likely range
R²
32.2%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
51.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
499
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
499 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
12,475
Normalized
730
12,475
Prepared
730
12,475
Aligned
499
499
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
137 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
12,207
A: 231 / B: 11976
Series A
Avalanche
AVAX
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,475 raw → 12,475 prepared
Sign agreement
83.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0195
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.7640
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: crypto:avax|fred:t10y2y|5Y
T10Y2Y
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Strongest positive