SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 48% of the time
Moderate positive
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Avalanche
AVAX
Smart Contract · USD pair
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-3%) and fall (+4%) — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
Correlation drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+62%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
105 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+62%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+49% → +73%
Likely range
R²
38.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
47.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
105
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
105 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
2,875
Normalized
730
2,875
Prepared
730
2,875
Aligned
105
105
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
56 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,395
A: 625 / B: 2770
Series A
Avalanche
AVAX
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0206
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.0768
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: crypto:avax|fred:mortgage30us|5Y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive