Correlation
of % moves
-5%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-04-24
1,236
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes barely line up — almost no shared pattern.
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
TLT moves ~1 day before USD/HKD Exchange Rate
Watch TLT for an early read on USD/HKD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
Approximate (legacy record)In sync(i)
48.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-5%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,236 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
11,370
Normalized
1,255
11,370
Prepared
1,255
11,370
Aligned
1,236
1,236
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.2%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,236
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+1 day
Correlation at this shift
-11%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/HKD Exchange Rate shifted 1 day earlier. Reads: "Does iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) today line up with USD/HKD Exchange Rate 1 day from now?"
248 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-5%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 day
-11%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
137 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,153
A: 19 / B: 10134
Series A
TLT
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,370 raw → 11,370 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0039
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_stock-tlt_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.