Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs 15Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-51%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
260
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-51%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-60% → -42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
260 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,253
1,828
Normalized
1,253
1,828
Prepared
261
1,828
Aligned
260
260
Invalid removed
R²(i)
26%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
259
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
259 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
167 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,569
A: 1 / B: 1568
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,253 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,828 raw → 1,828 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.8280
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0021
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_stock-tlt_weekly_5y