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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs 15Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-53%
In sync
of periods
30%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-19
261
These move opposite each other about 30% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~28% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-53%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-61% → -43%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,811
Normalized
1,255
1,811
Prepared
262
1,811
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
R²(i)
27.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-53%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
260 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-14%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
173 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,551
A: 1 / B: 1550
Series A
TLT
Stock · 1,255 raw → 262 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,811 raw → 1,811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.8536
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0020
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_stock-tlt_weekly_5y