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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-46%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-08
750
These move opposite each other about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~21% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-46%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-51% → -40%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
750 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
784
Normalized
1,255
784
Prepared
1,255
784
Aligned
750
750
Invalid removed
R²(i)
20.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
750
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-46%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
749 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+49%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+19%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
196 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
539
A: 505 / B: 34
Series A
TLT
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
37
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5305
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_stock-tlt_daily_5y