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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-94%
In sync
of periods
12%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
60
These move in the same direction about 12% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~89% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
12%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-94%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,290
Normalized
1,254
1,290
Prepared
61
1,290
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
89%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+93%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-95%
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,231
A: 1 / B: 1230
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,290 raw → 1,290 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.3225
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_stock-tlt_monthly_5y