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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-55%
In sync
of periods
27%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
260
These move in the same direction about 27% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~30% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
27%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-55%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
260 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,254
2,884
Normalized
1,254
2,884
Prepared
261
2,884
Aligned
260
260
Invalid removed
30%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
259
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-55%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
259 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-76%
174 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,625
A: 1 / B: 2624
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,884 raw → 2,884 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7361
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0016
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-tlt_weekly_5y