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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-54%
In sync
of periods
28%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
260
These move in the same direction about 28% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~29% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
28%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-54%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-62% → -44%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
260 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,254
2,893
Normalized
1,254
2,893
Prepared
261
2,893
Aligned
260
260
Invalid removed
R²(i)
29%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
259
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
259 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
174 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,634
A: 1 / B: 2633
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,893 raw → 2,893 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7215
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0016
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-tlt_weekly_5y