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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs 5Y Treasury Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-72%
In sync
of periods
16%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
1,242
These move in the same direction about 16% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~52% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
16%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,242 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
16,111
Normalized
1,254
16,111
Prepared
1,254
16,111
Aligned
1,242
1,242
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
52%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,241
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-72%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,241 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-88%
133 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,881
A: 12 / B: 14869
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,111 raw → 16,111 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.6984
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs5_stock-tlt_daily_5y