Correlation
of % moves
-71%
In sync
of periods
16%
History
daysdays · through 2026-04-30
1,242
These move opposite each other about 16% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~50% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
Approximate (legacy record)In sync(i)
15.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,242 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
16,067
Normalized
1,255
16,067
Prepared
1,255
16,067
Aligned
1,242
1,242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
50.1%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,242
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-71%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
249 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+33%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-89%
219 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,838
A: 13 / B: 14825
Series A
TLT
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,067 raw → 16,067 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.7411
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0032
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-dgs5_stock-tlt_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.