SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 51% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
The wireless business contributes nearly 70% of AT&T's revenue. The company is the third-largest US wireless carrier, connecting 74 million postpaid and 17 million prepaid phone customers. Fixed-line enterprise services, which account for about 14% of revenue, include internet access, private networking, security, voice, and wholesale network capacity. Residential services, about 11% of revenue, primarily consist of in-home broadband internet access, serving 15 million customers. AT&T also has a sizable presence in Mexico, with 25 million wireless customers, but this business only accounts for 3% of revenue. The company recently sold its 70% equity stake in satellite television provider Dire
Market cap 181.1B · 133,030 employees
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-30%) is 3.5σ from the long-run average of +88% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-1%) and fall (-3%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,246 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 10Y-2Y Yield Spread at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+88%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+86% → +89%
Likely range
R²
77.1%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.7%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,246
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,246 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
12,476
Normalized
1,255
12,476
Prepared
1,255
12,476
Aligned
1,246
1,246
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
135 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,239
A: 9 / B: 11230
Series A
AT&T Inc.
T
Market cap 181.1B · 133,030 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,476 raw → 12,476 prepared
Sign agreement
56.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1140
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2.3812
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-t10y2y_stock-t_5y
T10Y2Y
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Strongest positive