Correlation
of % moves
-5%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-04
1,196
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ORLY moves ~5 days before Interest on Reserve Balances
Watch ORLY for an early read on Interest on Reserve Balances.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
Approximate (legacy record)In sync(i)
41.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-5%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,196 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
1,741
Normalized
1,255
1,741
Prepared
1,255
1,741
Aligned
1,196
1,196
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.3%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,196
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+5 days
Correlation at this shift
+19%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 5 days earlier. Reads: "Does O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 5 days from now?"
244 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-5%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 days
+19%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+37%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-74%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
237 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
604
A: 59 / B: 545
Series A
ORLY
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0552
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0126
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-iorb_stock-orly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.