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Correlation
of values
+82%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
1,190
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~67% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+82%
Based on values
95% CI
+80% → +83%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,190 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,748
10,388
Normalized
1,748
10,388
Prepared
1,748
10,388
Aligned
1,190
1,190
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
66.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,190
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+82%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,190 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+82%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-4%
235 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,756
A: 558 / B: 9198
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,748 raw → 1,748 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,388 raw → 10,388 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6830
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
28.2802
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dextaus_fred-iorb_daily_5y