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Correlation
of values
+92%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-19
250
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~85% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+92%
Based on values
95% CI
+90% → +94%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
250 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,748
1,811
Normalized
1,748
1,811
Prepared
251
1,811
Aligned
250
250
Invalid removed
R²(i)
84.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
250
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+92%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
250 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+92%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+43%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+63%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
231 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,562
A: 1 / B: 1561
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,748 raw → 251 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,811 raw → 1,811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6309
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.9662
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y