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Correlation
of values
-76%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
1,214
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~58% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-76%
Based on values
95% CI
-79% → -74%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,214 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,777
13,892
Normalized
1,777
13,892
Prepared
1,777
13,892
Aligned
1,214
1,214
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
58.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,214
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-76%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,214 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
142 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,241
A: 563 / B: 12678
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,777 raw → 1,777 prepared
Series B
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,892 raw → 13,892 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0137
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.7256
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dexusal_fred-iorb_daily_5y