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Correlation
of values
+84%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
1,230
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~70% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+84%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,230 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,806
10,161
Normalized
1,806
10,161
Prepared
1,806
10,161
Aligned
1,230
1,230
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
70%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,230
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+84%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,230 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
137 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,507
A: 576 / B: 8931
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,806 raw → 1,806 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,161 raw → 10,161 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.0162
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-iorb_daily_5y