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Correlation
of % moves
+25%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-04
46
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
MKFG moves ~17 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch MKFG for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-5% → +50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
46 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
949
672
Normalized
949
672
Prepared
46
672
Aligned
46
46
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
46
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
+48%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does MKFG today line up with Consumer Sentiment 17 months from now?"
28 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
+48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
626
A: 0 / B: 626
Series A
MKFG
Stock · 949 raw → 46 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 672 raw → 672 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0856
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0041
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-umcsent_stock-mkfg_monthly_5y