Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-80%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
119
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~63% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Dow Jones Industrial Average moves ~12 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch Dow Jones Industrial Average for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-80%
Based on values
95% CI
-85% → -72%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
675
2,512
Normalized
675
2,512
Prepared
675
121
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
R²(i)
63%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
-89%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Dow Jones Industrial Average shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does Consumer Sentiment today line up with Dow Jones Industrial Average 12 months ago?"
107 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+71%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
51 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
558
A: 556 / B: 2
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 675 raw → 675 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,512 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-400.9029
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
63332.2785
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-djia_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y