SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-58%
of values
In sync
45%
of periods
History
428
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~33% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on values
95% CI
-64% → -51%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
428 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
671
1,857
Normalized
671
1,857
Prepared
671
429
Aligned
428
428
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
33.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
428
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-58%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
428 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+34%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
143 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
244
A: 243 / B: 1
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,857 raw → 429 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
24
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0386
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.4976
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-umcsent_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.