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Correlation
of values
-81%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
119
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~65% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
S&P 500 moves ~12 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch S&P 500 for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-81%
Based on values
95% CI
-86% → -73%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
675
2,512
Normalized
675
2,512
Prepared
675
121
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
R²(i)
65%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
-89%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
S&P 500 shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does Consumer Sentiment today line up with S&P 500 12 months ago?"
107 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-81%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+74%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
558
A: 556 / B: 2
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 675 raw → 675 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-68.9315
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9407.6970
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-sp500_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y