SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-79%
of values
In sync
55%
of periods
History
119
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~63% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
S&P 500 moves ~12 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch S&P 500 for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-79%
Based on values
95% CI
-85% → -71%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
671
2,515
Normalized
671
2,515
Prepared
671
121
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
62.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
-89%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
S&P 500 shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does Consumer Sentiment today line up with S&P 500 12 months ago?"
107 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+74%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
54 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
554
A: 552 / B: 2
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-65.6311
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9070.7915
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-sp500_fred-umcsent_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.