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Correlation
of values
+53%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
589
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~28% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+53%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
589 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
673
606
Normalized
673
606
Prepared
673
606
Aligned
589
589
Invalid removed
28%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
589
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+53%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
589 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-49%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-2%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
101
A: 84 / B: 17
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 606 raw → 606 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0845
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.1447
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-totalsa_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y