SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Intel is a leading digital chipmaker focused on designing and manufacturing microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors and led the semiconductor industry down the path of Moore's law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing. Intel remains the market share leader in central processing units in both the PC and server end markets. The company is seeking to reinvigorate its chip manufacturing business, Intel Foundry, while developing leading-edge products in its Intel Products business segment.
Market cap 427.2B · 851,001 employees
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+35%) is running 2.0σ away from the long-run average of -67%.
INTC moves ~4 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch INTC for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-14%) and fall (+14%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+4 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-73%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 4 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Intel Corp today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 4 weeks from now?"
257 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 4 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-67%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-73% → -60%
Likely range
R²
44.9%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
41.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
2,875
Normalized
1,255
2,875
Prepared
261
2,875
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
144 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,614
A: 0 / B: 2614
Series A
Intel Corp
INTC
Market cap 427.2B · 851,001 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0775
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.7321
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:mortgage30us|stock:intc|5Y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive