SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
Light inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Founded in 2012, Coinbase is the leading cryptocurrency exchange platform in the United States. The company intends to be the safe and regulation-compliant point of entry for retail investors and institutions into the cryptocurrency economy. Users can establish an account directly with the firm, instead of using an intermediary, and many choose to allow Coinbase to act as a custodian for their cryptocurrency, giving the company breadth beyond that of a traditional financial exchange. While the company still generates the majority of its revenue from transaction fees charged to its retail customers, Coinbase uses internal investment and acquisitions to expand into adjacent businesses, such as
Market cap 51.9B · 4,951 employees
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
COIN moves ~12 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch COIN for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-24%) and fall (-15%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-36%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks from now?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-25%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-36% → -13%
Likely range
R²
6.2%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
45.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
2,875
Normalized
1,255
2,875
Prepared
261
2,875
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-24%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-15%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
140 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,614
A: 0 / B: 2614
Series A
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
COIN
Market cap 51.9B · 4,951 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0037
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.5756
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred:mortgage30us|stock:coin|5Y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive