SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 53% of the time
Strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2025, reserves were 19.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.1 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
Fed Funds Rate (Daily)
DFF
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-81%) is 3.2σ from the long-run average of +76% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (-7%) vs when both rise (+90%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+76%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,254 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Funds Rate (Daily) at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+76%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+73% → +78%
Likely range
R²
57.4%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
52.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,254
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
26,237
Normalized
1,255
26,237
Prepared
1,255
26,237
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+90%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
235 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
24,984
A: 1 / B: 24983
Series A
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
DFF
FRED · 26,237 raw → 26,237 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
41
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0658
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3.2937
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: fred-dff_stock-xom_5y
DFF
Fed Funds Rate (Daily)
Strongest positive