SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 41% of the time
Strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Merck makes pharmaceutical products to treat several conditions in a number of therapeutic areas, including cardiometabolic disease, cancer, and infections. Within cancer, the firm's immuno-oncology platform, led by Keytruda, is a major contributor to overall sales. The company also has a substantial vaccine business aimed at preventing pediatric diseases, as well as Gardasil for human papillomavirus. Additionally, Merck sells animal health-related drugs. From a geographical perspective, 47% of the company's sales are generated from US human health (pharmaceuticals and vaccines).
Market cap 272.3B · 75,000 employees
Fed Funds Rate (Daily)
DFF
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-88%) is 3.4σ from the long-run average of +72% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+72%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,254 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Funds Rate (Daily) at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+72%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+70% → +75%
Likely range
R²
52.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
41.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,254
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
26,237
Normalized
1,255
26,237
Prepared
1,255
26,237
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+59%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-10%
239 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
24,984
A: 1 / B: 24983
Series A
Merck & Co., Inc.
MRK
Market cap 272.3B · 75,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
DFF
FRED · 26,237 raw → 26,237 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0845
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-4.8850
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-dff_stock-mrk_5y
DFF
Fed Funds Rate (Daily)
Strongest positive