Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-45%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
281
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-45%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,881
389
Normalized
5,881
389
Prepared
283
389
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
20%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-45%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
281 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
129 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
110
A: 2 / B: 108
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,881 raw → 283 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 389 raw → 389 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.6491
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.6339
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-t5yie_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y