SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
-48%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-09
278
These move opposite each other about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~23% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-48%
Based on values
95% CI
-56% → -38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
278 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,837
386
Normalized
5,837
386
Prepared
1,218
386
Aligned
278
278
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
278
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-48%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
278 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+65%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-8%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
146 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,048
A: 940 / B: 108
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,837 raw → 1,218 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 386 raw → 386 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.8252
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.9933
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-t5yie_fred-u6rate_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.