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Correlation
of values
-66%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
391
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~44% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-66%
Based on values
95% CI
-72% → -60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
391 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
391
13,956
Normalized
391
13,956
Prepared
391
669
Aligned
391
391
Invalid removed
R²(i)
44%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
391
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
391 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-32%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-29%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
66 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 0 / B: 278
Series A
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 391 raw → 391 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,956 raw → 669 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4.0824
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
153.8727
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y