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Correlation
of values
+60%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
2,494
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~36% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+60%
Based on values
95% CI
+58% → +63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,494 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,925
2,512
Normalized
5,925
2,512
Prepared
5,925
2,512
Aligned
2,494
2,494
Invalid removed
R²(i)
36%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,494
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,494 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+40%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,449
A: 3431 / B: 18
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,925 raw → 5,925 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
10599.1173
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10293.9455
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-djia_fred-t5yie_daily_5y