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Correlation
of values
-78%
In sync
of periods
25%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-31
1,251
These move in the same direction about 25% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~61% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
25%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-78%
Based on values
95% CI
-80% → -76%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,251 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,899
1,832
Normalized
5,899
1,832
Prepared
5,899
1,832
Aligned
1,251
1,251
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
61%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,251
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-78%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,251 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-78%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
136 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,229
A: 4648 / B: 581
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,899 raw → 5,899 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,832 raw → 1,832 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4.8538
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.5951
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-t5yie_daily_5y