SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-79%
of values
In sync
25%
of periods
History
1,189
days · through 2026-05-01
These move opposite each other about 25% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~62% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
25.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-79%
Based on values
95% CI
-81% → -77%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,189 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,837
1,741
Normalized
5,837
1,741
Prepared
5,837
1,741
Aligned
1,189
1,189
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
62.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,189
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-79%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,189 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-53%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-4%
240 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,200
A: 4648 / B: 552
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,837 raw → 5,837 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4.9453
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.8333
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-iorb_fred-t5yie_5y