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Correlation
of values
+58%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
2,494
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~34% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on values
95% CI
+55% → +61%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,494 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,925
2,512
Normalized
5,925
2,512
Prepared
5,925
2,512
Aligned
2,494
2,494
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,494
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+58%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,494 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+43%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-42%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-89%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,449
A: 3431 / B: 18
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,925 raw → 5,925 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
39
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1730.3279
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
481.4858
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-sp500_fred-t5yie_daily_5y