SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 40% of the time
Very strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
PayPal was spun off from eBay in 2015 and provides electronic payment solutions to merchants and consumers, with a focus on online transactions. The company had 439 million active accounts at the end of 2025. The company also owns Venmo, a person-to-person payment platform.
Market cap 44.8B · 23,800 employees
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+33%) is 2.1σ from the long-run average of -90% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+12%) and fall (+1%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-90%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
261 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-90%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-92% → -87%
Likely range
R²
80.5%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
39.8%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
2,875
Normalized
1,255
2,875
Prepared
261
2,875
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
150 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,614
A: 0 / B: 2614
Series A
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
PYPL
Market cap 44.8B · 23,800 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0190
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7565
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-pypl_5y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive